Briefing

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Futures point to lower open as oil climbs

  • S&P futures: -41.00 vs fair value. Nasdaq futures: -153.00 vs fair value.
  • Futures indicate a lower opening, lacking follow-through from yesterday's rally.
  • Oil prices climbing, up $4.12 (+4.7%) to $92.25 per barrel, awaiting U.S.-Iran negotiation updates.
  • Q4 productivity revised down to 1.8% (from 2.8%).
  • Unit labor costs revised up to 4.4% (from 2.8%).
  • Lower productivity and higher unit labor costs contribute to Fed's reluctance for rate cuts.

Global markets mixed

  • S&P futures: -34.00 vs fair value. Nasdaq futures: -133.00 vs fair value.
  • Asia-Pacific: Broadly higher equity indices.
    • China to implement fiscal/tax support if crude oil prices stay high.
    • Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent planning $84 billion in capital expenditures by 2027.
    • Japan planning JPY800 billion for gasoline subsidies, considering oil market intervention.
    • Economic data: Japan's Feb CPI mixed, March PMIs below expectations; South Korea Feb PPI up; Australia, India March PMIs mostly softer than previous/expected.
    • Equity Markets: Japan +1.4%, Hong Kong +2.8%, China +1.8%, India +1.9%, South Korea +2.7%, Australia +0.2%.
  • Europe: Major indices trade lower.
    • Flash March PMI readings: Manufacturing unexpectedly expanded, Services growth undershot expectations.
    • ECB policymaker Vujcic acknowledges increased stagflation risk.
    • Economic data: Eurozone, Germany, UK, France March Manufacturing PMIs generally better than expected, Services PMIs mostly below expectations; UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey worse than expected.
    • Equity Markets: STOXX Europe 600 -0.5%, Germany DAX -0.7%, U.K. FTSE 100 -0.3%, France CAC 40 -0.5%, Italy FTSE MIB -0.5%, Spain IBEX 35 -0.7%.

Futures point to lower open

  • S&P futures: -27.00 vs fair value. Nasdaq futures: -105.00 vs fair value.
  • Q4 productivity change revised down to 1.8% (preliminary 2.8%).
  • Q4 unit labor costs revised up to 4.1% (preliminary 2.8%).

Futures point to slightly lower open

  • S&P futures: -4.00 vs fair value. Nasdaq futures: -18.00 vs fair value.
  • Equity futures indicate a slightly lower opening after yesterday's rally.
  • Yesterday's rally followed President Trump's claim of U.S.-Iran negotiations (denied by Iran); S&P 500 and DJIA briefly topped 200-day moving averages.
  • UAE and Saudi Arabia support tougher measures against Iran.
  • Crude oil, after retreating 10% yesterday, is back above $90/barrel, up $2.80 (+3.2%) at $90.93. Chevron CEO notes Strait of Hormuz closure impact not fully priced.
  • Corporate News:
    • Apollo Global Management (APO): capping redemptions at a large private credit fund.
    • CoreWeave (CRWV): upgraded to Buy at BofA Securities.
    • Gilead Sciences (GILD): to acquire Ouro Medicines for up to $2.1 billion.
  • Overnight developments (Asia-Pacific equity indices broadly higher, European indices near flat lines, similar economic data and news as 09:02 ET report).

Early Morning Levels

  • S&P futures: +2.00 vs fair value. Nasdaq futures: +17.00 vs fair value.

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