Briefing

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  • Market Snapshot

    • Dow: 46340.40, +1125.37 (2.49%)
    • Nasdaq: 21590.64, +795.99 (3.83%)
    • SP 500: 6530.61, +184.90 (2.91%)
    • NYSE: Adv 2143, Dec 617, Vol 1.74 bln
    • Nasdaq: Adv 3877, Dec 966, Vol 10.72 bln

  • Industry Watch

    • Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Information Technology, Health Care
    • Weak: Utilities, Consumer Staples, Energy

  • Moving the Market

    • President Trump signals willingness to end U.S. military operations in Iran even without Strait of Hormuz opening.
    • Iranian President also signals willingness to end the war.
    • Oil prices lower after steep climb yesterday.
    • Broad gains, solid rebound in semiconductor stocks and other tech names.

  • Stocks surge on ceasefire hopes to end a tough March on a higher note (16:30 ET)

    • Stocks rallied as U.S. and Iran leaders signaled willingness to end conflict.
    • Major indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DJIA) took back considerable chunk of previous weakness, but ended March with losses (4.8% to 5.5%).
    • Monthly losses attributable to U.S.-Israel strikes against Iran since late February.
    • Equity futures pointed higher on Trump's willingness to end operations without Strait of Hormuz reopening.
    • Gains doubled midday on CNBC report of Iranian President's call with European Council, signaling readiness to end war with guarantees.
    • Oil prices retreated $1.77 (-1.7%) to $101.15/barrel.
    • Energy (-1.1%), utilities (-0.1%), consumer staples (flat) were laggards.
    • Tech and growth-oriented sectors led gains: Communication Services (+4.4%), Information Technology (+4.2%).
    • Meta Platforms (+6.67%) and Alphabet (+5.04%) extended rebounds.
    • NVIDIA (+5.62%) and other semiconductor stocks rebounded; PHLX Semiconductor Index +6.2%.
    • Outperformers included airlines (United Airlines +8.05%), cruise lines (Carnival +8.01%), and stocks tied to bitcoin and gold.
    • Russell 2000 (+3.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) also gained.
    • Session marked meaningful uptick in sentiment, S&P 500 widest single-day gain since last May.
    • Iran situation delicate, oil remains above $100/barrel, definitive end to energy shock not certain.
    • Major averages enter Q2 below 200-day moving averages, but closer after rally.
    • U.S. Treasuries ended March higher: 2-year yield down 3 bps to 3.80%, 10-year yield down 3 bps to 4.31%.
    • YTD Performance: S&P Mid Cap 400 +2.2%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJIA -3.6%, S&P 500 -4.6%, Nasdaq Composite -7.1%.
    • Economic Data:
      • January FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1%
      • January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1.6%
      • March Chicago PMI 52.8 (below consensus)
      • March Consumer Confidence 91.8 (above consensus), 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 6.2% (highest since Aug 2025).
      • February JOLTs - Job Openings 6.882 mln (above consensus).

  • Major averages look to reclaim some of their March losses in final session (15:30 ET)

    • Major averages well positioned to take back significant March weakness (ending month with 4.8%-5.5% losses).
    • Energy sector (-1.7% today) remains only S&P 500 sector with March gain (+9.7%).
    • Nike (NKE) shares down 15% in March, earnings after close, guidance key driver. Focus on China and margins, tariff mitigation.

  • Gains holding as oil prices ease amid ceasefire initiatives (15:05 ET)

    • S&P 500, Nasdaq, DJIA charting new session highs.
    • Optimism around potential end to Iran conflict held.
    • Pakistan and China proposed ceasefire and reopening Strait of Hormuz.
    • Crude oil futures settled $1.77 lower (-1.7%) at $101.15 per barrel.

  • S&P 500 Rises 2.5% as Airlines Soar; Constellation Energy Slumps on Weak Guidance (14:30 ET)

    • S&P 500 up 2.46%.
    • Top performers: Carnival (+7.85%), United Airlines (+7.84%), Qnity Electronics (+7.00%).
    • CCL and UAL rose due to strong travel demand and fare increases offsetting jet fuel cost concerns.
    • Worst laggard: Constellation Energy (CEG -8.05%) after 2026 EPS guidance came below consensus, raising near-term earnings concerns.

  • Gold Jumps 2.6% on Safe-Haven Demand as Dollar, Yields Ease (14:00 ET)

    • Nasdaq Composite leading, up 3.13%.
    • Gold futures settled $121.10 higher (+2.6%) at $4,678.60/oz.
    • Gold supported by renewed safe-haven demand due to Middle East tensions, modest pullback in U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
    • U.S. Dollar Index fell -0.5% to $99.97.

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