Briefing

Stock Market Update

• Futures point to lower open as Iran conflict ramps

  • S&P futures vs fair value: -53.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -250.00.
  • Stock market on track for a lower opening.
  • Rising oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions cited as reasons.
  • Initial jobless claims for March 21 week rose by 5,000 to 210,000 (met consensus).
  • Continuing jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million (lowest since May 2024).
  • Report not indicative of a weak labor market; initial claims remain historically low.

• Global markets lower

  • S&P 500 futures vs fair value: -57.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -255.00.
  • Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region mostly lower:
    • Concerns about potential helium shortages affecting chip production impacted South Korea's Kospi (-3.2%).
    • India's market was closed for a holiday.
    • Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%. China's Shanghai Composite: -1.1%. Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.
    • Economic data: Japan's Corporate Services Price Index and BoJ Core CPI up; Hong Kong's trade deficit widened; Singapore's Industrial Production fell.
  • Major European indices trade in the red:
    • Renewed geopolitical uncertainty as Brent crude returned above $100/bbl; Iranian officials deny negotiations with the U.S.
    • Shipper Hapag-Lloyd warns of a 2026 earnings decline due to the Iran conflict.
    • ECB policymaker Nagel stated an April rate hike is an option; French Economy Minister hinted at measures to offset high oil prices.
    • STOXX Europe 600: -1.2%. Germany's DAX: -1.4%. U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.3%. France's CAC 40: -0.9%. Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.2%. Spain's IBEX 35: -1.1%.
    • Economic data: Eurozone M3 Money Supply and Private Sector Loans growth slowed; Germany's GfK Consumer Climate fell; France's Business Survey and Consumer Confidence fell; Italy's Consumer Confidence fell; Spain's Q4 GDP met expectations.

• Weekly jobless claims

  • S&P futures vs fair value: -58.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -277.00.
  • Initial jobless claims rose to 210,000.
  • Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.819 million.

• Futures point to lower open

  • S&P futures vs fair value: -61.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -271.00.
  • Equity futures point to a lower opening, reversing yesterday's gains.
  • Crude oil is up $3.53 (+3.9%) to $93.85 per barrel; yields are up 5-8 basis points.
  • Market faces choppy action as the Iran conflict unfolds; major averages remain below 200-day moving averages.
  • Corporate News:
    • SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a $75 billion IPO.
    • Jefferies missed earnings and revenue expectations.
    • Meta Platforms and Alphabet were found liable in a social media addiction case.
  • Reviewing overnight developments:
    • Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower; Kospi down significantly due to potential helium shortages.
    • Major European indices in the red due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising crude prices.

• European Market Data

  • FTSE: -1.30%.
  • DAX: -1.60%.