Briefing

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Futures point to higher open with Strait of Hormuz in focus

  • S&P futures vs fair value: +63.00
  • Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +218.00
  • President Trump states U.S. not pulling assets in/around Strait of Hormuz yet.
  • Trump expressed frustration at other countries for inaction on the waterway.

Futures point to higher open

  • S&P futures vs fair value: +69.00
  • Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +237.00
  • Equity futures point to a higher opening after a mixed, holiday-abbreviated week.
  • Early gains attributed to geopolitical developments.
  • Geopolitics: Report suggests Trump willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even if Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
  • Iran's fractured leadership complicates negotiations.
  • Pentagon to hold a briefing on Iran.
  • Economic Data: March Consumer Confidence report expected.
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Governors Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking.
  • Fed President Jerome Powell (yesterday) said inflation expectations remain well anchored, leading to a drop in rate hike probabilities.
  • Corporate News:
    • Airport lines easing as TSA agents receive back pay.
    • Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) to be acquired by Biogen (BIIB) for $41.00 per share.
    • Netflix (NFLX) interested in expanding NFL package to four games.
  • Overnight Developments:
    • Asia-Pacific: Mostly lower (South Korea's Kospi -4.3%, Japan's Nikkei -1.6%, China's Shanghai Composite -0.8%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.2%, Australia's ASX +0.3%. India markets closed.
    • Asian News: Japan's Tokyo CPI decelerated but price hikes expected to reaccelerate. China's liquor giant Kweichow Moutai announced price hikes. China's Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in March. South Korea plans extra budget for Iran war impact.
    • Asian Economic Data: China March Manufacturing PMI 50.4, Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (both expansion). Japan February Retail Sales -0.2% yr/yr. South Korea February Industrial Production -2.2% yr/yr.
    • Europe: Major indices trade in the green (STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%, Germany's DAX: +1.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.0%).
    • European News: Eurozone CPI accelerated to 2.5% yr/yr. U.K. Q4 GDP in-line. France's Consumer Spending decreased more than expected. ECB policymakers suggest rates will rise; decisive action needed if Iran war drags on. Germany lowered 2026/2027 growth outlooks, raised inflation forecasts.
    • European Economic Data: Eurozone flash March CPI 2.5% yr/yr. U.K. Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr. France flash March CPI 1.7% yr/yr, February Consumer Spending -1.4% m/m.

Early Morning Levels

  • S&P futures vs fair value: +56.00
  • Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +185.00

Asian Market Data

  • Nikkei: -1.60%
  • Hang Seng: +0.20%

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