Morning News Call

TOP NEWS

• US eases sanctions on Russian oil (30-day waiver) to address energy prices inflated by Iran war.
• Adobe shares drop after CEO Shantanu Narayen steps down, raising AI-disruption concerns.
• Nvidia to focus on competition-beating AI advances at its megaconference, revealing new products and partnerships.
• Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh's room to loosen monetary policy may be disappearing due to a war-clouded outlook and persistent oil price shock.
• Starbucks may be neglecting labor dispute risks, according to shareholder proxy firms.

BEFORE THE BELL

• U.S. stock index futures subdued amid Middle East conflict, stoking price pressures and complicating Fed policy.
• Investors tracking private-credit market and awaiting PCE inflation and U.S. GDP data.
• Oil prices extended climb, on track for strong weekly gains, as Middle East war disruptions outweighed supply easing measures.
• Dollar on course for second weekly gain; energy-sensitive currencies (euro, yen) slid. Gold prices little changed.
• European shares extended declines, headed for second weekly loss due to inflation worries.
• Asian markets slipped; Japan's Nikkei and Chinese stocks weakened.

STOCKS TO WATCH

• Adobe Inc: CEO Shantanu Narayen to step down; shares down over 7% due to AI disruption worries, despite double-digit revenue growth.
• Amazon.com Inc: Planning to move Prime Day sale event to late June, impacting Q2 sales and competing with other retailers.
• Apple Inc: To lower App Store commission fees in mainland China (25% from 30%; 12% from 15% for small businesses), following regulatory pressure.
• BE Semiconductor Industries NV: Fielding takeover interest, working with Morgan Stanley; Lam Research among suitors; shares jumped.
• Buzzfeed Inc: Flagged concerns, won't provide 2026 forecast, evaluating strategic options; shares down 7.3%; facing cash crunch and stock value loss.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co: Marking down private credit loan values, expected to reduce lending to funds; extends jitters across the private credit market.
• Lucid Group Inc: Expects to turn cash flow positive late this decade, unveiled robotaxi concept, aims for 100,000 deliveries mid-term, and plans significant cost reductions.
• LyondellBasell Industries NV: Fire broke out at its Bayport Choate site in Texas; contained, no community threat, personnel safe.
• Meta Platforms Inc: Postponed "Avocado" AI model release to May/June due to performance falling short of rivals; considering licensing Google's Gemini.
• Nvidia Corp: ByteDance (TikTok parent) assembling computing power with Nvidia chips outside China (Malaysia) for AI R&D and customer demand.
• PayPay Corp: Shares opened above offer price in Nasdaq debut, valuing the company at $12.7 billion, boosting new listings market.
• Starbucks Corp: Proxy firms warn on financial and reputational risks from labor disputes, citing strikes, a $38.9 million settlement, and board committee dissolution.
• Ulta Beauty Inc: Forecast annual profit below estimates, citing higher costs and "global conflicts" impact; shares down 8% after operating margin decline.
• United Parks & Resorts Inc: Sesame Workshop sued SeaWorld (a unit of United Parks & Resorts) to end their relationship over alleged withheld royalties and undermining the brand.

FOCUS

• Credit-card cash is increasingly reshaping US airline loyalty programs and profits, shifting focus from traditional metrics.

ANALYSTS' RECOMMENDATION

• Adobe Inc: JPMorgan cuts target to $420 from $520 due to softer ARR, Stock business decline, and CEO transition uncertainty.
• Dollar General Corp: Jefferies cuts target to $170 from $178 citing moderated FY26 guidance, cost pressures, and limited margin upside.
• Sentinelone Inc: JPMorgan cuts target to $16 from $17 due to in-line results, cautious outlook, and CFO transition uncertainty.
• Ulta Beauty Inc: Jefferies cuts target to $635 from $720 due to weak FY26 guidance and reduced visibility on margin expansion.

ECONOMIC EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)

• 0830 Personal income MM for Jan: Expected 0.5%; Prior 0.3%
• 0830 Personal consumption real MM for Jan: Prior 0.1%
• 0830 Consumption, adjusted MM for Jan: Expected 0.3%; Prior 0.4%
• 0830 Core PCE price index MM for Jan: Expected 0.4%; Prior 0.4%
• 0830 Core PCE price index YY for Jan: Expected 3.1%; Prior 3.0%
• 0830 PCE price index MM for Jan: Expected 0.3%; Prior 0.4%
• 0830 PCE price index YY for Jan: Expected 2.9%; Prior 2.9%
• 0830 PCE prices excluding food, energy & housing for Jan: Prior 0.4%
• 0830 PCE services price excluding energy & housing for Jan: Prior 0.3%
• 0830 Durable goods for Jan: Expected 1.2%; Prior -1.4%
• 0830 Durables excluding transport for Jan: Expected 0.5%; Prior 1.0%
• 0830 Durables excluding defense MM for Jan: Prior -2.4%
• 0830 Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft for Jan: Expected 0.5%; Prior 0.8%
• 0830 GDP 2nd estimate for Q4: Expected 1.4%; Prior 1.4%
• 0830 GDP sales preliminary for Q4: Prior 1.2%
• 0830 GDP cons spending preliminary for Q4: Prior 2.4%
• 0830 GDP deflator preliminary for Q4: Expected 3.6%; Prior 3.7%
• 0830 Core PCE prices preliminary for Q4: Expected 2.7%; Prior 2.7%
• 0830 PCE prices preliminary for Q4: Prior 2.9%
• 0830 PCE ex food, energy & housing (p) for Q4: Prior 2.8%
• 0830 PCE services ex energy & housing (p) for Q4: Prior 3.6%
• 1000 U Mich Sentiment Preliminary for March: Expected 55.0; Prior 56.6
• 1000 U Mich Conditions Preliminary for March: Prior 56.6
• 1000 U Mich Expectations Preliminary for March: Prior 56.6
• 1000 U Mich 1 year inflation preliminary for March: Prior 3.4%
• 1000 U Mich 5-year inflation preliminary for March: Prior 3.3%
• 1000 JOLTS job openings for Jan: Expected 6.700 mln; Prior 6.542 mln
• 1000 Dallas fed PCE for Jan: Prior 2.2%

CORPORATE EVENTS (All timings in U.S. Eastern Time)

• 1100 Lennar Corp: Q1 earnings conference call

EX-DIVIDENDS

• Albemarle Corp: $0.405
• Allegion PLC: $0.55
• Arch Capital Group Ltd: $0.34
• Automatic Data Processing Inc: $1.7
• Chubb Ltd: $0.97
• Coca-Cola Co: $0.53
• Crown Castle Inc: $1.0625
• Devon Energy Corp: $0.24
• Digital Realty Trust Inc: $1.22
• Domino's Pizza Inc: $1.99
• Duke Energy Corp: $0.35
• Everest Group Ltd: $2
• Fortive Corp: $0.06
• Garmin Ltd: $0.9
• Gilead Sciences Inc: $0.82
• Northern Trust Corp: $0.29
• Packaging Corp of America: $1.25
• Ross Stores Inc: $0.445
• SBA Communications Corp: $1.25
• Sempra: $0.3594
• Southern Co: $0.4062
• Textron Inc: $0.02
• Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc: $0.47
• Verisk Analytics Inc: $0.5
• Waste Management Inc: $0.945
• Williams Companies Inc: $0.525
• Xcel Energy Inc: $0.59