The Day Ahead

COMING UP IN U.S. - WEEK AHEAD

• Economic Data:
  • CPI (February): Expected +0.3% monthly, +2.4% annually. Core CPI +0.2% monthly.
  • PCE Price Index (January): Expected +0.3% monthly, +2.8% annually. Core PCE +0.4% monthly, +3% annually.
  • Consumer Spending: Expected +0.3%.
  • Personal Income: Expected +0.4%.
  • Durable Goods Orders (January): Expected +0.8% overall, +0.5% ex-transportation.
• Housing Data:
  • Existing Home Sales (February): Expected to rise to 3.89 million units.
  • Housing Starts (January): Expected to rise to 1.350 million units.
  • Building Permits (January): Expected to increase to 1.405 million units.
• International Trade Deficit (January): Expected to narrow to $68 billion.
• Labor Data:
  • Weekly Jobless Claims: Initial claims for week ending March 7 likely rose by 2,000 to 215,000. Continued claims for week ended February 28 expected.
  • JOLTS report (January) due.
• Consumer Sentiment: University of Michigan’s preliminary March reading projected at 55.
• Oracle Earnings: Expected Q3 revenue rise from cloud; commentary on debt and long-term growth sought.

U.S. TOP NEWS

• President Trump to meet defense contractors to boost production due to depleted stockpiles from Iran strikes.
• United Airlines expects a "meaningful" hit to Q1 results from surging fuel prices due to the Iran conflict.
• BlackRock fund limits withdrawals amidst rising redemption requests in the private credit market.
• U.S. customs agency preparing a system within 45 days to refund tariffs previously struck down.
• Medtronic's MiniMed shares debuted on Nasdaq 4.8% below offer price, valuing it at $5.35 billion, amid market volatility.

MARKET RECAP AT 4 pm ET

• Wall Street sank; benchmark Treasury yields fell.
• Weak payrolls report fueled views for quicker Fed rate cuts.
• Surging oil prices continued to stoke inflation fears.
• Gold gained; dollar slipped.

WEALTH NEWS

• U.S. economy unexpectedly lost jobs in February; unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
• Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between addressing rising inflation from oil prices and a weakening job market.
• Middle East developments and upcoming inflation data are set to influence U.S. stock markets.
• Investors are using "shock-absorber trades" as the Iran conflict creates high uncertainty regarding inflation and monetary policy.
• Integrating private and official data could enhance Fed policymaking by improving forecasts for jobs and inflation.