The Day Ahead

COMING UP IN U.S.

• Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis to release personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report:
  • Index likely up 0.3% in January, annual PCE up 2.9%.
  • Core PCE price index for January expected up 0.4%, annual core up 3.1%.
  • Consumer spending expected up 0.3%, personal income likely grew 0.5%.
• Second estimate of GDP: Economy likely grew 1.4% in Q4.
• Labor market front:
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS): Job openings rose 158,000 to 6.7 million in January.
  • University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March projected at 55.
• Census Bureau:
  • Orders of durable goods for January likely rose 1.2%.
  • Excluding transportation, orders likely up 0.5%.

U.S. TOP NEWS

• JPMorgan's markdown to restrict lending to private credit firms.
• Pentagon CTO ruled out renewed Anthropic negotiations due to supply-chain risk.
• SoftBank-backed PayPay valued at $12.7 billion in Nasdaq debut, shares jumped.
• Lilly found impurity in compounded weight-loss drug, warned of health risks.
• Dollar General forecast muted annual sales on weak spending, shares dropped.

MARKET RECAP AT 4 pm ET

• Stocks tumbled as Iranian strikes on oil tankers sent crude prices surging, exacerbating inflation fears.
• Treasury yields rose.
• Strong dollar hurt gold prices.

INSIGHT AND ANALYSIS

• US insurers and hospitals turning to AI for battle over charges vs payments.
• "Trump always chickens out" investment strategy.
• Time for short sellers to make a comeback after S&P 500's strong returns.

WEALTH NEWS

• Low layoffs anchoring US labor market; Iran war poses a threat.
• Wall Street banks score win as Fed unveils plan to ease capital requirements.
• Wall St whisperers help financial firms navigate Iran conflict risks.
• US launched unfair-trade probes (excess industrial capacity, forced labor) to rebuild tariff pressure.
• Poll: Fed to cut rates in June, despite war inflation risks.