Briefing

February retail sales

• S&P futures vs fair value: +39.00
• Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +202.00
• ADP Employment Change Report: private sector employment increased by 62K in March (consensus 42K), up from 66K in February.
• Total retail sales: up 0.6% month-over-month in February (consensus: 0.5%) following a 0.1% decrease in January.
• Excluding autos: increased 0.5% (consensus: 0.3%) after a flat reading in January.

Futures point to higher open

• S&P futures vs fair value: +55.00
• Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +262.00
• Equity futures point to a higher opening
• Yesterday's action: stocks posted best single-session gain since May 2025 (2.5% or wider)
• Reason for optimism: Reports of U.S. and Iran leaders signaling willingness to end the war.
• President Trump: estimates U.S. will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks.
• Crude oil: extending yesterday’s move lower, down $2.76 (-2.7%) to $98.62 per barrel.
• Crude oil retreat reason: Wall Street Journal report on UAE pressuring Iran to open Strait of Hormuz.
• President Trump will address the nation on Iran this evening.
• Upcoming economic data:
  • February Retail Sales Report (consensus 0.5%; prior -0.2%)
  • March ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus 52.3%; prior 52.4%)
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Index for week ended March 28 decreased 10.4%.
• Corporate news:
  • OpenAI: completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation.
  • Microsoft (MSFT): reportedly in discussions with Chevron (CVX) for a power plant in Texas.
  • Nike (NKE): beat EPS, revenues in-line, but trades sharply lower (-10.9%) due to guidance of low single-digit revenue decline and "flattish" earnings.
• Reviewing overnight developments:
  • Asia-Pacific equity indices firmly higher:
    • South Korea's Kospi: +8.4%
    • Japan's Nikkei: +5.2%
    • Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.0%
    • China's Shanghai Composite: +1.5%
    • India's Sensex: +1.7%
    • Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +2.3%
  • Asia News:
    • Encouragement from President Trump's comments on Iran withdrawal.
    • South Korean officials: no disruptions to helium and ethylene gas supply through H1.
    • March Manufacturing PMI: China, Japan, South Korea in expansion; Australia in contraction (materials shortage).
    • Bank of Japan: will reduce bond purchases by about 8% in Q2 (expected).
  • Asia Economic data highlights:
    • China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.8.
    • Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6.
    • South Korea's flash March trade surplus $25.74 bln, March Exports +48.3% yr/yr, March Manufacturing PMI 52.6.
    • Hong Kong's February Retail Sales +19.3% yr/yr.
    • Australia's Flash February Building Approvals +29.7% m/m.
  • Major European indices trade in the green:
    • STOXX Europe 600: +2.5%
    • Germany's DAX: +3.0%
    • U.K.'s FTSE 100: +2.0%
    • France's CAC 40: +2.1%
    • Italy's FTSE MIB: +3.4%
    • Spain's IBEX 35: +3.2%
  • Europe News:
    • Most March Manufacturing PMI readings in expansion despite surging energy prices.
    • Spain was an outlier, falling into contraction (48.7).
    • ECB policymaker Rehn: latest inflation reading not a surprise, rate hike not certain.
    • Germany's economy minister urged a return to nuclear power.
  • Europe Economic data highlights:
    • Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6, February Unemployment Rate 6.2%.
    • Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 52.2.
    • Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3.
    • Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 48.7.
    • Swiss March Manufacturing PMI 53.3.

Early Morning Levels

• S&P futures vs fair value: +28.00
• Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +129.00

Asian Market Data

• Nikkei: +5.20%
• Hang Seng: +2.00%